Buffalo vs Arizona
#745 Buffalo +8½ -102 over Arizona

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +8½ -102 BET365 +8½ -110  SportsInteraction +8½ -110  5DIMES +8½ -110

Posted Wednesday at 6:00 PM EST.

Second Round of NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament - Taco Bell Arena - Boise, Idaho

9:40 PM EST. The Wildcats are Pac-12 Champions but considering it was a terrible year for the conference, that banner isn't going to be worth the cloth its cut from. This is the most suspect defense we've seen in Tucson in a good many years. Sean Miller's group has been good enough to get by in Pac-12 play, but good enough isn't going to cut it in this National Championship. The Wildcats' D falls in line with what has been a five-season year-to-year slide on that side of the ball in Pac-12 play. It has been a slow-motion development, relatively speaking, but now, after five years of movement in one direction, the impacts are becoming visible. Just three teams from that conference got the call from the selection committee, with both UCLA and Arizona State both being sentenced to First Four participation. The bottom-line results aren't there the way they usually are in Tucson. Allowing conference opponents 1.04 points per possession when an average Pac-12 defense allows 1.06 is not the tradition Wildcat way. In summarizing, Arizona might sport a dangerous offense, but its unspectacular defense plays right into the wheelhouse of this underdog.

The Bulls of Buffalo are in the Big Dance for the third time after appearances in 2015 and 2016. This year's edition of the Bulls is easily the best group they've sent to the NCAA's despite drawing just a 13-seed. Buffalo set program records in MAC wins and home victories on its way to its third MAC regular season title. The Bulls feature a high octane offense, but are also a blue-collar team that isn't afraid to get their hands dirty. There are no easy baskets with Buffalo, as it sends opposing players to the line 24.4 times per game. As a team, Buffalo has a positive rebounding margin of 2.5, which puts it ahead of ranked schools like Clemson, Tennessee and Virginia. The Bulls' weakness comes when its opposition refuses to go shot-for-shot with them, but that should not be an issue with the offensive-minded Wildcats on deck. The Bulls could not have asked for a better first round matchup as a low seed because the Pac-12's commitment to not playing defense is in full force again this season. The Bulls are one of the most dangerous offenses in the nation ranking seventh in scoring offense, 43rd in Field Goal% and 29th in three-pointers made per game. The long ball is central to the Bulls' offense, as it accounts for 40% of their shot attempts. The Bulls also have four players that average double-digits in points-per-game. However, in addition to an offense that can keep up to the Wildcats, Buffalo also sports a shooting defense that ranks 43 spots higher than Arizona. Once again, when you back popular teams in this event, you are going to pay a serious premium to do so. The Bulls belong on the national stage and should easily come in under this inflated number.

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Our Pick

#745 Buffalo +8½ -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)