Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:25 AM EST.
Sun Belt Conference - FINALS - Lakefront Arena in New Orleans, Louisiana
2:00 PM EST. The Georgia State Panthers are the number two seed in this tournament and made it to this final after riding a 15-point halftime lead into a 73-67 victory over rival Georgia Southern. While the Panthers have won three straight including their first two games of this Sun Belt tournament, it's easy to forget they struggled by going just 2-4 to finish the season. Georgia State played a relatively weak non-conference schedule that ranks 259 in the nation as per KenPom, and the Panthers have some bad losses including one to Prairie View A&M as a 15½-point favorite and one to Liberty in overtime in a game that oddsmakers wouldn't even post a line on. Georgia State's seeding and 23-10 record so far this season are sure to get some attention in the market on a day when these small favorites are going to seem very appealing to those that are cramming for the NCAA tournament like it's a final exam.
We wrote yesterday that the Mavericks were built for this moment and they did not disappoint after knocking out number one seeded ULL with a 71-68 win as a 7-point pooch. UT-Arlington has played some tough road games this season at BYU, Alabama and Creighton and while it went just 1-2 in those games, a one-point loss in Tuscaloosa and hanging around with then #25 Creighton in Omaha is nothing to get down about. Those tough early games has served coach Scott Cross and crew well, as they have already sent the tournament favorites packing. A similar fate for Georgia State could is in play. The Sun Belt isn't the only bracket the Mavericks could bust before this season is over. UT-Arlington has one of the best pairs in college hoops with Kevin Hervey and Erick Neal, but it is also now getting great production from every other member of the starting five. All ships rise with the tide as they say. The Mavericks are playing their best ball of the season and that isn't likely to stop today. UT-Arlington, the superior squad, punches its ticket to the dance and we cash in on the value again.
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UT-Arlington +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)