Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:15 AM EST.
Big Ten Tournament – Madison Square Gardens – New York, New York.
2:00 PM EST. After a huge 77-58 win over Nebraska, the Wolverines are now the talk of the Big Ten tournament. The defending champs are getting a ton of press after that blowout yesterday with some pundits calling them the most underrated school in college hoops. Michigan has now won nine of its last 10 games including the first two rounds of this tournament, but with its dance card punched, and a win over the Spartans already this season, we have to wonder if more bragging rights are going to be enough today. The market loves a winner and the Wolverines have been paying out like a broken slot machine after covering six of their last seven, but we are in the business of buying low and selling high and with the Wolverines stock soaring, a crash could be looming.
We question the Spartans motivation yesterday and gladly cashed a ticket, as they failed to cover a 11½-point spread against Wisconsin. MSU was a popular pick in the market, as the money kept driving that line up all the way until tip-off. What the market saw next was the #2 team in the nation struggle with a sub .500 school to the point where an outright upset by the Badgers was absolutely on the table. When the market gets burned by a team, we often see them zig-zag to the other side, especially come tournament time when these games and schools are all under the microscope. Motivation will not be an issue today, as the Spartans draw their top rival. MSU lost an 82-72 decision to these Wolverines in East Lansing in mid-January, but that double-digit defeat should only lessen Michigan State's appeal in the market today. The Spartans also got whacked by Michigan 86-57 last season, and although that result has no bearing today, it does play into the market's perception that Michigan has this team's number. We'll use that opinion to our advantage today, as the Spartans should be supremely motivated to clean up this last bit of unfinished business before they go dancing. A huge letdown spot for the winner of this game looms, but for Michigan State, this is the "real" Big Ten championship game. We'll gladly spot these points, as the Spartans should leave no doubt about who is the best team from the Mitten State.
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#636 Michigan State -4½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)