Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:35 AM EST.
4:00 PM EST. Stanford was one of the hottest teams in the Pac-12 after a 5-1 start to conference play, but it has fallen on hard times of late after losing three of its last five games. That rough stretch culminated in a double-digit loss at Utah on Thursday night. The 60 points Stanford posted in that game was its second-lowest total of the season, but a correction is likely coming, as this team usually shoots much closer to its season average of 46.7% then 35.8% did that night. The Cardinal were a trendy pick to start the new year after five straight covers to begin 2018, but that bubble has burst, which now allows us to buy low on this underpriced guest.
Colorado has won two straight including a 68-64 victory over Cal last time out, but that positive result is very misleading. The Buffaloes coughed the ball up 19 times and benefited greatly after making 50% of their shots from the field, which is well above their average for the season (44.9%). Teams go hot and cold all the time, and those runs cannot be predicted from one game to the next, but shooting at that high level isn't sustainable over time. Only the top 10 schools in the nation are making 50% of their shots or better night in and night out. The Buffaloes are ranked 146th. The Buffaloes have owned the Cardinal by winning the last eight meetings between these two schools, including a 91-72 beat down last season in Boulder, but that kind of one-sided dominance only increases their market appeal while further inflating this line. If this game were played a couple of weeks ago, there is a great chance Stanford may have been spotting road points, as they are the superior side. However, recency bias has influenced the market to the point where we get the superior team in a decent spot at an inflated price. That’s a wager we’ll make every time.
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#825 Stanford +136 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.72)