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Posted at 12:45 PM EST.

7:00 PM EST. On paper, Rider looks like the right play here, as they are first in the MAAC with an 8-2 conference mark while Monmouth is sitting in seventh place with a 3-5 conference mark. Furthermore, Rider has won 15 of the 22 games they have played (15-7 overall) while the Hawks of Monmouth have only won seven games this year against 13 losses (7-13 overall). This is once again a case of the market being heavily influenced by results and not the ingredients. Talent wise, Monmouth is every bit Rider’s equal and might even be better but this price does not reflect that. Instead, Riders first place standing and great overall record provides us with this great opportunity.

7:00 PM EST. Rider has won four straight in the conference over St. Peters, Marist, Fairfield and St. Peters again. Combined, those three teams are 6-21 in the conference and the Broncs of Rider could have just was easily gone 0-4 in those games, as they won by 4, 3, 2 and 3 points respectively. The Broncs are so fortunate that we’re not discussing them as a 4-6 team in the MAAC as oppose to an 8-2 squad. One of Rider’s conference losses was to Iona by 27 points, which is more proof of just how erratic a first place team they are. Good teams lose but first place teams’ don’t lose by 27 points to their biggest threat. The Broncs are very simply one of the most overvalued first place teams in the country and their bubble will burst. Out of conference, Rider posted a 7-5 mark but they played the 165th ranked out-of-conference schedule in the country. Such misleading numbers across the board surround the Broncs but all this market sees is their solid W/L record.

By contrast, Monmouth has played the 37th ranked out-of-conference schedule out of 351 teams and that is significant. The Hawks went into Seton Hall and lost by just 10 points. Four games later, Monmouth went into Pennsylvania (an Ivy League power this year that whacked St. Joe’s on Saturday) and took the Quakers to four OT periods before succumbing. They also lost to UConn in OT. Monmouth has played Kentucky, Virginia, Hofstra and Princeton too and now that difficult out-of-conference schedule is starting to pay off. Monmouth is coming off back-to-back, double-digit impressive wins. They are more balanced then the Broncs and they’re clearly more battle tested. The Hawks have convincing wins while the Broncs have very narrow one’s and it all equals up to the luckier team with the much easier schedule spotting points to what might be the superior team that is feeling it right now. Pay no attention to the records and don’t be afraid to play the dog outright. We’ll use the Hawks in some money line parlays but we’ll take the sweet, inflated points for this flat wager.      

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