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Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

8:05 PM EST. We have the Astros in the series and if you played them to win the series before Game 6, you would’ve been forced to lay -240. The oddsmakers take into consideration that a Game 7 was certainly possible but had no fear in offering up the Dodgers at +225 prior to last night’s game. Today, you’ll have to spot -155 to get behind the Dodgers, which is a difference of 380 after their Game 6 victory. Thus, if we’re sticking to playing or recommending value, the Astros are the only play here. This is the biggest price of the series so far and it’s not warranted.

Through six games, this World Series has had quite a few narratives and interesting strategies in play. The most controversial of these has been bullpen usage and, increasingly, the tactical decisions of both managers have been driven by which pitchers are trusted at any given time. The usual duo of elite late-inning relief arms for the Astros, closer Ken Giles and setup man Chris Devenski, never before have pitched this deep in the season. Consequently, both have looked completely gassed for weeks, and are carrying postseason ERAs north of nine. Without his big relief horses performing, Houston manager A.J. Hinch has been left guessing whom to use at any given time. However, Game 6 gave him a rare advantage, as Justin Verlander was pitching the best baseball of his career and likely to pitch fairly deep into the game. The Dodgers bullpen, believed to be their key advantage a week ago, was also blown out by the end of Game 5.

The Dodgers bullpen is really the key reason why L.A. is favored by this much. Dave Roberts suggested before Game 6 that closer Kenley Jansen might only be available for three outs instead of the six he’s often been asked to get in key postseason spots. Jansen has been less than his usually unhittable self recently, and not without reason; he’d already thrown 5.2 innings over its first five games. But Jansen might be the best reliever in the league, and at the end of the day he’s the man you’re going to trust for two innings for your season. Jansen cruised through two perfect innings on only 19 pitches, and now Roberts gains a new tactical weapon for Game 7: the bullpen services of Clayton Kershaw, the greatest pitcher on the planet, in one game for all of the marbles. However, there’s also a chance that the Astros put up some runs before Kershaw is called upon.

Other than a brief hiccup with a sore shoulder, Yu Darvish has a strong season. His command has been good in the postseason but a fly-ball % spike in a home-run dominated series is an issue. Fly-balls (and thus HR’s) are part of the package. Yu Darvish is an ace but he’s blown up this year and he’s blown up in the past in the postseason so he’s a risky ace. In three starts this postseason, he has a 4.15/4.29 ERA/xERA split. Last year for Texas in a big post-season game, he lasted five frames after surrendering five hits and four jacks. Darvish has pitched in five postseason games and his ERA over that span is 5.28. The big stage might not be his forte.

Lance McCullers Jr. made two starts for the Astros in their series win over the Yankees. He was one of the reasons that the Astronauts won. He pitched to a 1.20 ERA in those two starts. He also faced the Dodgers back in Houston in Game 3 and only surrendered four hits in 5.1 innings before being pulled. The Astros won that game 5-3. When he’s on, Lance McCullers is one of the top young starters in the game this season. Check out his nasty combination of strikeouts and groundballs: 10.2 K’s/9, 63% grounders. In fact, McCullers has become one of the most effective RHers in the game against southpaws. The only chink in his armor is some spotty control issues, which have been the result of falling behind hitters (56% first-pitch strike rate). His elite groundball tilt makes up for his inconsistency with pounding the strike zone and it’s a gamble one should be willing to take. We’re not betting this game because we have the Astronauts for 2 units to win it and we’re not willing to risk 4 units on something so close. If we’re all being totally honest, there was nothing really incredible or astonishing about last night’s Game 6. We can’t get a Game 2 or a Game 5 for every game, but there’s nothing wrong with being the bridge to a Game 7. These are two 100-win teams that have played incredibly entertaining baseball at a high level for six games. Maybe Game 6 was the calm, sunny bridge that these two teams needed to cross before going into the storm that is the one-game winner-take-all finale of the 2017 season. In that regard, we have no regrets or concerns in needing the Astros to cash out ticket. Recommendation: Houston +152. 

NO BETS ONLY BECAUSE WE HAVE HOUSTON IN THE SERIES ALREADY. 

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