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Posted at 11:45 AM EST

8:05 PM EST. We wouldn’t exactly call Game 1 of the World Series a surprise. The home team, the best team in baseball by wins over the entirety of the season–parlayed an excellent performance by their Hall of Fame starting pitcher into a win over a gutty performance by the opposing team’s 1-A ace. There were lots of strikeouts, and the runs in the game were scored off homers in a season chock full of strikeouts and dingers. It was a taut, exciting game but hardly qualified as unexpected in terms of outcomes. Tonight night be different.

Tonight we have to wrestle with two conflicting expectations. First, there are the Dodgers, who look so strong coming off their previous playoff wins and last night’s victory and are possessed of both powerful lineup and dominant bullpen. As the home team, they are likely projected to win any possible game at home, no matter how powerful their opposition might be. They are a great blue juggernaut rolling over their competition.

On the other hand, we have Justin Verlander’s screaming fastball. Unlike any other pitcher since Curt Schilling, Verlander embodies the gut-it-out playoff ace narrative, and for excellent reason. With his history of being able to step up his performance late in games or at the end of seasons, the no-hitters, and his larger-than-life reputation, the big righty has taken it up a notch since coming to the Astros. It is almost impossible to look at him taking the bump in October and bet against his team. Thus, the Dodgers are in the right place. The Astros have the right pitcher at the right time. Something will give.

You can say that this is a critical game for the Astros already, as going down 0-2 to start a World Series is a recipe for disaster. That is not wrong. At the same time, every single game during a World Series is a critical game. Nothing about this particular outing is more critical than any other during this seven-game stretch. Both teams have to win four games to take home a trophy, and that still hasn’t changed.

However, Game 2 presents, possibly, the Astros’ best chance to win a game on the road. The Astros have been absolute murder on left-handed pitchers this season, and while that may not have held up against Kershaw–few things do–Rich Hill is not Kershaw. While the Dodgers may not be facing the same kind of pressure as the Astros, no one should be resting easy. If the Astros steal an away game in L.A., then that means the Dodgers have to do the same during the long slog in Houston this weekend. They’re equipped to do it, but potential and practice are two very different things, and a loss tonight may actually put them at a disadvantage overall in what will have become a five-game series where they do not hold home-field advantage.

So, the pendulum could swing tonight, if any one structure in the system breaks down. Verlander is among the least likely cogs in any system to break down. Expecting another shutout seven might be over-relying on his story, but he’s very likely going to have another rock-solid outing and it goes without saying that the Astronauts have a great chance to tie the series up here.

Our two options are to play the Astros in Game 2 or at the adjusted series price of +225. We’re going to choose the former because if they win here, we’ll still have them in the series at +146, which we would then be free-rolling on. However, if we bet the updated series price and they win here, we cash nothing and they could still lose the series.  

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