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Posted at 1:20 PM EST

8:05 PM EST. Down 2-0 in the series, the Cubs take their best role, the dream-crushers and drought-extenders, back to Wrigley. Last season, they bounced the Dodgers and the Indians—two teams with extended World Series droughts—and this year they’ve once again trounced the Series-less Nationals franchise. The top of the Dodgers’ order is the terrifying part—and they did predictably well against the Diamondbacks in Round 1 of the playoffs—but over the last three games #PuigYourOffense. The oft-ridiculed right fielder has had a heck of a comeback season, and thrilled in the NLDS with three singles, two walks, a double, and a triple. If he stays hot, Cubs pitchers will have to deal with two potent heart-of-the-order-caliber threesomes before making it to the seventh hitter in the lineup. Even if you’re Kyle Hendricks, that’s brutal. By the numbers, you can see a real advantage on L.A.’s side. The Dodgers lineup is Fort Knox—there’s no getting through its walls—and it took an exceptional performance by a former teammate who knows the order inside and out (Zack Greinke) to keep the Dodgers from scoring fewer than eight runs in any game during the NLDS. The Dodgers have scored 29 times over their last five games while the Cubbies have scored two or fewer in four of its last five playoff games and three or fewer in six of its seven playoff games this season. 

Early in his major league career, Yu Darvish met the lofty expectations that followed him from Japan. His progress slowed, though, when he had Tommy John surgery in March 2015. After returning in mid-2016, he hit the DL again with a sore shoulder. After 187 innings this year, Darvish looks as good as ever and maybe even better. He threw a gem against the D-backs at Chase Field in the NLDS and that’s as tough a nine as any in baseball in their own yard.  Darvish is generating a lot of swinging strikes, which keeps his K-rate high. He struck out 209 batters in in 187 innings and has 32 K’s with just six walks issued over his last 27 frames. His command sub-indicators have soared in his last five starts too with a 14% swing and miss rate, 62%, first-pitch strike rate and he even flashed a groundball tilt (46% GB%). Yu Darvish is the straight goods and he’s not facing a hot-hitting lineup here.

We’ve all heard the term “crafty lefty” but Kyle Hendricks is a crafty righty. He relies on keeping hitters off balance with his deceiving stuff. Hendricks set a high bar for himself by posting a 2.13 ERA and finishing third in Cy Young Award voting in 2016. He's predictably taken a step back, but he’s also held up well over the course of the season with a 3.03 ERA over 140 innings. Although he’s solid, he’s not in the same class as Darvish and he’s the type of pitcher that has to have his good stuff working or he’s in big danger of an early exit. Never a hard thrower, his velocity has fallen off significantly in 2017. His K-rate and swing and miss rate (7%) are down slightly, and unless he regains some zip on his 86 MPH fastball, he's not likely to improve. He still has a ground ball tilt working for him, but has given up a lot more hard contact this season, which has surely played a role in his higher hr/f. Hendricks pitched twice versus the Nats in the NLDS and was brilliant the first time (7 IP 2 hits) but couldn’t make it past the fourth inning the second time after being tagged for nine hits, two jacks and four runs. Hendricks is a bigger risk than Darvish and it’s also worth noting that the Dodgers pen is in much better shape than Chicago’s.

As a wise man once said, “To be the man, you gotta beat the man” and while the Cubs are still the man, we have to give the edge to the team that won 104 games this season, as almost every edge favors the West Coasters. This is the game that either buries the Cubbies into a big hole or allows them back in the series. In that respect, we’ll take out chances with Darvish at a price and the Dodgers live bats versus a crafty right-hander that may not get much run support.

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