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Atlanta @ N.Y. METS
Atlanta -110 over N.Y. METS

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -110 Bet365 -115 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES -110

Posted at 12:45 AM EST.

 

7:10 PM EST. With just four or five games left before the Wild Card games and playoffs, we’re going to slow way down and play one game today, as we’re not going so well in baseball right now and don’t want to dump a bunch of units back. We’re also abandoning the Coors Field angle for the rest of the year. That brings us to Sean Newcomb and the Braves to beat the Mets.

 

Newcomb's strikeout history has been remarkably consistent, and with a 13% swing and miss rate over 95 frames, he's lived up to his advance billing as a strikeout pitcher so far. Newcomb has 101 K’s in 95 innings.

Control and command were known issues for him coming into the majors, and they continue to be a problem; however, there has been steady progress in both categories, which are positive signs that he's starting to figure it out. Newcomb has prevented those walks from doing more damage by keeping his fly-ball % down. Over his last 21 innings, Newcomb has a BB/K split of 9/25. A former first round pick, Newcomb is a high-upside prospect, but he has to overcome the control/command barrier in order to achieve his full potential. He's making strides and is high on our radar going into next season. This dude has filthy stuff and is the superior starter here by a wide margin.

 

By contrast, Robert Gsellman is nothing more than a glorified pitching machine. He has a weak BB/K split of 44/78 in 114 frames. He has also posted an xERA of 6.12 since the All-Star break. Gsellman posted an impressive 8.5 K’s/9 in eight big league appearances (seven starts) in 2016, while recording a 19 percent swing and miss rate on his slider. He's down to 12 percent on the pitch this year, and has also lost a little velocity. Gsellman has been unable to build on last year's success, thanks to a combination of things. His ERA/xERA gap reveals that he's been a little unlucky, but he's also getting fewer swinging strikes than last year and walking more batters than he usually does. Gsellman looks like a pretty risky play here, as his numbers are weak across the board and his confidence is shot.

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Our Pick

Atlanta -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

 

 

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