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Seattle @ OAKLAND
OAKLAND +112 over Seattle

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +112 Bet365 +110 SportsInteraction +115  5DIMES +111

Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

10:00 PM EST. James Paxton missed more than a month with a pectoral strain and has thrown a disaster in both of his starts since returning. In those starts, he has only thrown 50 and 73 pitches respectively. With the Mariners essentially done for the year, there is no reason to push Paxton hard. We strongly suspect that he’ll be on a limited pitch count again. Furthermore, the opposing Athletics have been hot with their bats, averaging 5.7 runs per game in September where they have a .832 OPS.

Daniel Mengden has spent most of the season in the minors, where he has been shaky at best because of control problems. What’s so interesting about that is that he’s walked just two batters over his last 22 innings at this level, covering his last three starts. Over that span, Mengden has struck out 15 and has pitched to a 3.68 xERA to go along with a nifty 0.82 WHIP. Perhaps after spending most of last year up here, being back in the minors brought him way down. He went 2-9 with the A’s last year with an ERA over 6 but he was a strike-thrower with a plus change-up that zipped through the high minors (1.46 ERA, 4 HR allowed, 95/29 K/BB in 98 IP). Mengden found rougher sledding in his MLB debut but this year we’re seeing an opposite effect. Since being back up, Mendgen has posted some nice peripherals that include an 11% swing and miss rate and a good fastball (94 MPH) with life. We’ll roll the dice here with Mengden because the A’s have been so tough at home and Paxton figures to go five or less.

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Our Pick

OAKLAND +112 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.24)

 

 

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