Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST.
7:10 PM EST. We have to apologize for last night’s Miami selection, as we did not realize that the game was being played in Milwaukee. The books have the Marlins listed as the home side and technically they are but literally, Miami is absolutely, 100% on the road again. This series was supposed to be in Miami but Irma curtailed those plans so the series remains in Milwaukee. What’s so sweet about that is Milwaukee bats first, meaning they’ll bat in the ninth inning no matter the score, which is another positive nugget for us just in case they are leading by one.
We’re not expecting that though. We expect the Crew to be up by 10, not one. Forget the pitchers for a second and focus on situation and what is. Miami hasn’t been home for a while (10 days). A lot of these players have homes in that region, not to mention family and friends. Surely, they are anxious to get home and they were probably looking forward to it before they were told they will remain in Milwaukee for the weekend. That was not welcomed news. Mentally, the Fish are ill-prepped to compete against this highly focused Brewers’ squad. Mentally, Miami’s season ended when Irma landed. They aren’t hitting, they aren’t pitching and they aren’t even coming close to winning.
Enter Adam Conley, the Marlins ripe for the pickings starter here. Conley opened 2017 in the Marlins starting rotation, but was jettisoned to Triple-A New Orleans on May 9 after posting a horrid 7.53 ERA in 29 IP. He has fared much better since returning on July 18, amassing a 3.72 ERA in 64 IP but nothing has changed other than his luck. Home runs are a major issue for him, as the fortuitous hr/f from 2015-16 has regressed. The decrease in velocity is worrisome and has no doubt been a factor in opposing batters making far more hard contact against him in 2017 (Hard hit balls 2015/2016/2017: 22%/31%/36%). With a lousy BB/K split of 35/66 in 93 innings, a vile groundball/fly-ball split (32%/46%), a 1.45 WHIP and an ERA/xERA split of 5.23/7.11, Adam Conley has about as much appeal as driving in rush hour. This is one of MLB’s worst starters that is pitching for a disinterested team that just wants to go home.
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MILWAUKEE -1½ +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)