Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:15 AM EST.
7:10 PM EST. Cleveland’s winning streak has taken on a life of its own but it has to come to an end at some point and this is as good a spot as any to see that take place. The Royals have a way of spoiling dreams and they have the talent too. Josh Tomlin may also be Cleveland’s weakest link in the rotation. On the surface, Tomlin’s great numbers over his last three starts (1.84 ERA) comes after he’s put up an ERA over 5.00 for the first five months of the season. Tomlin's xERA shows his skills are virtually unchanged and they're not very good. He does have league-best control working for him (13 walks in 1n 121 innings) but that’s not enough to slow down the HR barrage over the past two seasons. Josh Tomlin is 6-6 at home with a 5.54/5.91 ERA/xERA split and with velocity, swing and miss, and K-rate all headed in the wrong direction, he's playing with fire now and cannot be a near 2-1 favorite. It’s absurd, frankly, as the Royals bats are on fire the past week with a .856 OPS and an average of almost seven runs per game.
The much better starter here will be going for the Royals. Jakob Junis quietly has been very effective since he beginning of August (2.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) and those marks came with the backing of a strong set of skills: 8.6 K’s/9, 0.4 BB’s/9, 46% grounders and an xERA of 2.94. Junis threw strikes at a good rate, both early (64% first-pitch strike rate) and often (33% ball %). Over his last five starts covering 31 innings, Junis has walked three batters while striking out 30 with a 12% swing and miss rate to back it up. If Cleveland’s winning streak continues here, good for them but does anyone even understand how many things have to go right for a team to win 20 games in a row? There’s no such thing as due to lose but there is a thing called overpriced to a high degree and you can put that label on the Tribe when Josh Tomlin is the starter during an historic winning streak.
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Kansas City +179 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.58)