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Pittsburgh @ MILWAUKEE
Pittsburgh +147 over MILWAUKEE

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +147 Bet365 +145 SportsInteraction +150 5DIMES +146

Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

8:15 PM EST. Chase Anderson has been a pleasant surprise in 2017, as he's sporting a tidy 2.93 ERA heading into the final stretch of the season. What has been the key to his success, and is it sustainable? No, as Anderson has had some luck on his side. He has helped himself by adding some whiffs, which can probably be tied to his uptick in velocity. He's gotten his first-pitch strike rate back up to league average, which is where his percentage of pitches in the zone sits as well for the second straight season. There's no reason to expect his control to change much from his current level. His fly-ball rate continues to soar, which does not bode well when pitching at Miller Park, which dramatically increases home runs (+49% LHB, +11% RHB). A low home run per fly-ball rate has helped him maintain a 0.9 hr/9 on the year, including a 1.1 mark at home, but he's at risk of more damage via the long ball in the future. Anderson's numbers are much improved in 2017, but the gap between his ERA and xERA shows he's been extremely fortunate. On the plus side, he's added some zip on his fastball, which has helped him increase the strikeouts. However, his fly-ball tendencies have escalated, which will eventually come back to bite him in a hitter-friendly home park. Anderson should continue to be a serviceable starter but the overall package isn't nearly as strong as his ERA would suggest. Additionally, only two teams in the NL have struck out fewer times than the Buccos, which makes them a live dog whenever a price is offered.

Tyler Glasnow’s last MLB start came way back in early June against the Marlins. That was the start (4 IP 10H 7ER) that go him sent back down. What this market will see today is a starter that has been in the minors after getting lit up at this level to the tune of a 7.45 ERA with a BAA against of .326 over 12 starts. In four starts last season, Glasnow went 0-2 with a 4.24 ERA over 23 innings. It seems at times like the Pirates are being super-cautious with this top prospect and the reason is obvious: they saw an emerging control issue; as 42 BB in 87 MLB IP confirms. However, his swing and miss and groundball rates are in place and now he just needs more strikes. That's the last piece of this puzzle that might be in place too. Glasnow blazed through Triple-A Indianapolis since being sent down in June, nailing down a 1.93 ERA with 140 strikeouts and only 32 walks in 93.1 innings (15 starts). He's again made several adjustments to his approach, including speeding up his delivery and it appears to be working. This could wind up being a different Glasnow down the stretch than the version who carries a 7.45 ERA into this one. Glasnow’s season-long numbers assures us of a great price here. Remember, this is a pitcher with filthy stuff that is two years in working with the best pitching coach around. His stock could rise very quickly so get in now before that happens.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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Our Pick

Pittsburgh +147 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.94)

 

 

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