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Posted at 12:40 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Ubaldo Jimenez has been a fade target of ours for a few years now but for whatever reason, he absolutely shines when facing the Blue Jays. Current Toronto batters have hit a mere .216 against Jimenez in 305 combined AB’s (that’s over 100 innings) with a horrible .693 OPS. The Jays continue to make a lot of weak pitchers look good and even had their hands full with the free-falling Tigers this past weekend. The Jays are not in a good place right now and this is not a good matchup for them.

It’s always good to be known for something. Marco Estrada’s known for generating pop-ups and fly-balls, making his high fly-ball rate not seem like much of a problem. That seemed to work for him in his first 11 starts, when he posted a 3.14 ERA but he’s fallen apart since then, with a 6.85 ERA in his last 18 starts. Other than a few more walks and a few more strikeouts, 2017 looks like a carbon copy of 2016 with the only difference being luck. The main difference between 2016 and 2017 is Estrada’s BABIP and strand rate, both of which are luck-driven stats.  Those extra runners didn’t come around to score last year but this year they are and that is the absolute only difference between the two seasons, one of which looks great and one of which looks awful. When you bet on or against Marco Estrada, luck, whether it’s good or bad, will play a massive role in the outcome of the game and while Jimenez is in the same boat, Baltimore is in better form than Toronto, they have a superior ‘pen and they’re not the team spotting a tag.

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