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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

9:10 PM EST. After an exciting four-game series against the Dodgers last weekend in which the Padres lost the opener but won the next three, a letdown against the Cardinals is not a big surprise. Now the Papas have lost the first three games of this series and their stock is once again lower than it should be. The Padres have a young, exciting and competitive club that is 38-35 at home while the Cardinals are under .500 on the road. Clayton Richard owns some of the best skills in the game against LH batters with 9.9 K’s/9, 1.4 BB’s/9 and 67% groundballs. He also has a sub-3 ERA against them. The Cardinals feature a heavy right-handed lineup but that’s not going to prevent us from backing this live dog at home.

We’ve been fading Lance Lynn quite a bit this year and it hasn’t paid off yet. At some point, we’ll get paid back when Lynn starts because at some point his luck will run out. Over his last five starts covering 33 innings, Lynn has walked 16 and struck out 22 for a revolting ratio. His ERA over that span was 2.43 and it’s all because of his luck-fueled 86% strand rate over that stretch. It’s not just over that stretch though. Lynn has a 2.99 ERA this season with an 81% strand rate. His xERA is 4.82 and he also has an ugly first-pitch strike rate of 54%. Pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery typically struggle with command during the first year back so it’s no surprise to see Lynn deal with that issue in 2017. Given his middling skills and a hit%/strand% combo that is ripe for regression, Lance Lynn is an extremely risky bet for the rest of the season. He’s also overpriced almost daily because of his shiny ERA but this is not a 2.99 ERA starter.   

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