Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST.
7:10 PM EST. Yeah, yeah, we know that the Tigers have cleaned house and that Miguel Cabrera is in the midst of serving his six-game suspension but that gives some opportunities for some young players to inject some much-needed enthusiasm into that lineup with a chance to impress at this level. We now get to buy the Tigers over the final month at rock bottom prices and they’re worth a bet here with Matt Boyd going.
Boyd remains a high-risk/high-reward target but he could be worth a late-season look in certain spots and this is one of them. He has posted a 14% swing and miss rate over his last five starts, which has led to 26 K’s over his past 24 inning. That was a reminder of the type of skills he flashed in the second half of 2016, as well as the elite command he showed this spring. A 38% hit rate and 64% strand rate have kept his ERA very high at 5.92. However, his xERA over his last five starts is a glorious 3.91 and with a little better luck, he could be in line for a solid outing here.
K.C. is 4-6 over its past 10 games. They lost last night in the opener of this series, 13-2. Over their last nine games, the Royals pitching staff has given up 12, 12, 17 and 13 runs respectively in four of those games. This is a beat up bullpen and last night’s crooked number doesn’t figure to help matters. That taxed bullpen could be called upon early again tonight behind Jason Hammel. Hammel is 34-years-old and has thrown 156 innings this season. You may recall that he was left off the Royals postseason roster last year because of elbow tightness, which only adds to concerns regarding his workload this year and his backslide in xERA. In his last outing, Hammel struck out three batters in six full innings. He comes in with a 4.80/4.88 ERA/xERA split with 12 quality outings in 27 starts. This is not a pitcher worth getting behind as road chalk, instead, he’s worth fading because his chances of a weak or below average outing are stronger than a good outing.
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DETROIT +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)