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Posted at 11:20 AM EST.
1:10 PM EST. Our regular readers may recall earlier this season that we were going after some baseball totals based on several factors that we were monitoring. We were using an Air Density Index reading to scientifically provide us with a good information on the conditions that affect the flight of the baseball.
Since air density is very light at the top of tall mountains, especially when the temperatures are warmer, the Air Density Index reading begins at zero at this elevation. The scale will approach 100 at sea level as the air density becomes heavier if it is very cold in temperature on a particular event day. The bulk of professional and non-professional sporting events will fit between 20.0 and 80.0 on the Air Density Index Scale," so that rarely would an event approach the extremes of zero and 100. One would probably be far below sea level and well into the Arctic’s coldest air before the gauge would read above 100. Similarly, one would probably need to be in the highest of mountain peaks, with the temperature approaching "hot," for the gauge to read in the minus scale.
The effect of humidity on air density is very slight and is actually opposite what it is commonly purported to be. The common reputation of humidity is that it is heavy; however, this is a misnomer. Humidity is actually light for a projectile to fly through, because there is more hydrogen in humid air than in dry air, which contains a larger percentage of nitrogen. And, of course, nitrogen is heavier than hydrogen. The Air Density Index reading takes into account humidity, as well as temperature and elevation-related barometric pressure to give us a reading between 20 and 80. Coors Field is generally in the 45-to 55 range, which is the lowest in MLB. In other words, the lower the reading, the further the ball will travel (creating overs) and vice versa.
After a hot start using this method, we cooled off for about a week and put it on the backburner to fine tune the process, as we noted that we are still in the experimental (infancy) stage with this strategy but we’ve been tracking and watching totals all season using this scale and trust we found a good spot here.
Back in May, June and July, the Air Density Index for games in Cincinnati were in the 68 to 73 range but today we find it at a favorable 62.52. That suggests that balls should be carrying well at Great American this afternoon. That bodes well for the Reds against Chase Anderson because Cinci hits right-handers very well and Anderson’s groundball/fly-ball split of 33%/68% is a disaster waiting to happen at this park in these conditions.
Meanwhile, Homer Bailey’s profile does not play well at any park under any conditions. If Bailey has a decent game here, it’ll be all luck because his skills are so bad. Bailey is coming off a six-inning, four-hit, two run performance against the Mets but don’t buy it. He struck out one lousy batter (the pitcher) over those six frames and got very lucky that all those hard hit balls were right at folks. Bailey is 0-5 at Great American with a 9.95 ERA. He has a horrible 32/44 BB/K split over 62 frames. The conditions, the starters and the venue point towards this one going over this number with ease and so we’ll play it that way.
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Milwaukee/CINCI over 9½ -119 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.68)