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Posted at 12:40 PM EST

7:10 PM EST. Rafael Montero has pitched better than his surface numbers would indicate, especially lately. Montero has 27 K’s over his past 26 innings with a supported 12% swing and miss rate. His unlucky 68% strand rate is the reason his ERA is so high at 5.64. This is a starter with very good stuff that averages 94 MPH on his fastball. He’ll mix in a change and a slider to give him three legit pitches. Throw in a 48% groundball rate and a very respectful 4.09 xERA and there is no question as to which starter holds the value here.

Homer Bailey shouldn’t be favored over the Las Vegas 51’s (New York’s’ PCL affiliate), let alone the Mets. Bailey left his last outing due to irritation in the back of his right shoulder but to our delight, he’ll go today and he’s favored. Bailey is on the road back to full health after May 2015 TJS. A bad finish in six late starts last year and a lack of usable skills shouldn't come as a surprise given his lingering biceps tenderness. There was a lot to like pre-surgery, including a rising groundball rate and solid command-related skills but that was then and this is now. Bailey was hammered for eight earned runs in his first 2017 start, allowing six hits with 3 BB/2 K in 1.2 IP. He hasn’t been much better in 11 other starts. Bailey has walked 17 over his past 23 innings. His 30% line-drive rate would be the third worst in baseball among starters but he does not qualify. To us, he qualifies beautifully. This is a starter with a 7.99/6.62 ERA/xERA split that is 0-4 at Great American Ballpark with a 12.10 ERA. Nuff said.

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