BEST LINES: Pinnacle +104 Bet365 +100 SportsInteraction +105 5DIMES +101

Posted at 12:30 PM EST

10:05 PM EST. The last report on Jhoulys Chacin was that he was nursing some swelling in his pitching hand and it was unknown as to if he will make his next scheduled start Monday against the Giants. He is scheduled to start but sometimes there is a late pitching change so we are making this an “action” bet, meaning listed pitchers do not have to start. We get San Fran +104 regardless of who’s pitching, so when you make this bet, “uncheck”

Chacin must start (should come up after the initial bet as the confirmation bet) and then it becomes an “action bet”.

Even if Chacin does start, his hand was all swelled up five days ago. Even if Chacin does start, he’s walked 16 batters over his past 28 innings to go along with a 5.91 xERA. His ERA over his last three starts is much prettier at 3.68 but that’s a luck-driven ERA. Under the hood, Chacin has been horrible since the beginning of July. Another reason that he and the Padres are favored here is because Chacin has a 1.86 home ERA. While Chacin has indeed performed better at home, that shiny ERA is in line for regression because his relationship with the strike-zone is deteriorating by the start. Jhouly’s Chacin is not a 1.86 ERA pitcher. Not even close.  

Meanwhile, Jeff Samardzija had another rough month on the surface in July (5.64 ERA). His August ERA thus far is better at 3.90, which has led to an overall ERA of 4.67. All told, Samardzija’s surface ERA is one of the most misleading in the game. Here's a starter with a BB/K split of 26/170 in 168 innings! Buy-low targets don't get any better than Samardzija. His skills continue to scream buy with 9.0 K’s/9, 1.2 BB’s/9 and a 43% groundball rate. His skills receive full support from his 11.6% swing and miss rate, 69% first-pitch strike rate, 31% ball % and a terrific xERA of 3.30. A 36% hit rate and 60% strand rate have teamed to torpedo his surface stats. Thus, in an evenly priced game, we can take back a small tag with the superior starter who throws strikes and who has had poor fortune while the favorite is not healthy, he can’t throw strikes and has misleading surface stats. We’re on board for that.

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