Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:00 PM EST.
8:40 PM EST. We’re going to ditch the Coors Field underdog, reverse run-line theory and switch to playing the favorite here for several reasons. First, the winner at Coors Field is almost always by two runs or more and this is a horrible matchup for Detroit. The Tigers have a dumpster-fire bullpen that will see action today because Jordan Zimmermann has about a 1% chance of performing well.
Zimmermann has a mere 16 K’s over his last 35 innings covering six starts. He has a 7.01/7.72 ERA/xERA over that stretch. Overall, Zimmermann has a vile BB/K split of 41/91 over 140 frames to go along with his 6.11/6.27 ERA/xERA split. It gets worse too. Zimmermann’s batted ball profile is also vile with 29% grounders, 25% line-drives and 46% fly-balls. That’s not the end of it either, as Zimmermann’s hard-hit ball % is 39.3% (not line-drive because a hard-hit ball could be a smashed grounder), which is the fifth highest mark in MLB among qualified starters. Jordan Zimmermann and the rest of the Tigers pitching staff is in line to get walloped here.
The Antonio Senzatela bandwagon was overflowing when the rookie was 7-2 with a 3.49 ERA at the end of May, but a few have hopped off along the way in response to a 6.92 ERA and the subsequent loss of his starting pitching role. However Senzatela is back in the rotation, where he’s had one good start against the Indians and one shaky start against the Royals. Furthermore, Senzatela had a terrific 2.45 ERA in nearly 500 minor league innings, so it will be interesting to watch if he can recapture some of what worked (e.g. 64% first-pitch strike rate) in the early months. What we know for sure is that the Rocks are a different (better) team at home and Senzatela wins games when he pitches at Coors, as his 8-2 record at home will attest to. We’re merely giving out info on Senzatela but the real wager here is all about fading Zimmermann and the Tigers ‘pen at this unforgiving park.
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COLORADO -1½ +106 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.12)