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Colorado @ATLANTA
ATLANTA +115 over Colorado

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +115 Bet365 +110 SportsInteraction +110 5DIMES +112

Posted at 10:00 AM EST.

1:35 PM EST. Just 11 days ago back in Colorado, these two starters opposed one another and the Rockies won 17-2. Coming right back on the Rocks here would be an easy sell but unfortunately it just doesn’t work that way. Colorado is 32-34 on the road, which doesn’t look bad but they got off to a torrid start on the road in the first six weeks of the season. Since then, they’ve gone back to being the same dumpster-fire team on the road that they’ve always been. Jonathan Gray gave up just five hits and struck out six while holding the Braves to a pair of runs in six innings in that 17-2 Rockies victory but we couldn’t care less. Gray is 1-3 with a 5.72 ERA in eight road starts on the season. He’s also had a tough time against left-handed batters in 2017 and he’ll face a left heavy lineup here. Gray’s decision to essentially scrap his change-up, which had been an effective weapon against left-handed batters, might need to be re-considered (change-up usage 2015/2016/2017: 17%/7%/1%; LHB vs. change-up in 2016: .167 BA, 1 HR and 11% swing and miss rate) but that’s a discussion for another time. Right now, Gray has a low 8% swing and miss rate and weak underlying numbers on the road. How many times have we seen a starter slay a lineup one day and subsequently face them again a short time afterward and get his ass handed to him? It happens often.

Mike Foltynewicz’s stock is very low with a total of 20 runs surrendered in just 11.2 innings over his last three starts. Foltynewicz has been tagged for 8, 6 and 8 runs respectively over that span but that just sets up an opportunity to buy him low. Prior to that, Foltynewicz had allowed two runs or less in seven of 12 starts and three runs or less in 13 of 16 starts. This fireballer has shown a steady skills growth so we’re not going to allow three disaster starts in succession interfere with our decision to get behind him. Almost every pitcher will go through rough patches over the course of a 162-game schedule. Foltynewicz has gone through his and so the time to sell on him has passed. If he didn’t have the skills, we could get behind fading him but he owns very good skills across the board. He closed with a flourish last season, he was outstanding for most of this year and he’s now being sold short against one of MLB’s most beatable road squads. 

 

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Our Pick

ATLANTA +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

 

 

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