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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

4:05 PM EST. Robert Gsellman is hit and miss. In 88 innings this year covering 16 starts, Gsellman is 5-5 in 16 with a 5.65 ERA but his xERA is a full run lower at 4.62. He went 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA with 42 K in 45 IP for the Mets last year. That was a strong debut for a groundball-inducing rookie in a playoff chase with a K-rate higher than the 6 K’s/9 he posted in his 207 innings in the upper minors. Somewhere in between last year and this year is what we can expect from Gsellman moving forward but whatever happens here, we can live with because this wager is all about taking back a massive price against both the Nationals and their starter.

Gio Gonzalez is coming off a 6.2 inning, five-hit, one-run gem against the Padres. He’s 11-5 with a 2.39 ERA and a BB/K split of 62/150 over 162 frames. Gonzalez is coming off five wins in a row in which he dominated on paper by allowing a mere three runs and 20 hits over 34.2 frames during that stretch. One of those victories in Miami was an eight-inning, one hitter. That one is noteworthy because Gonzalez grew up in that area and had a ton of family and friends there. He was also very good friends with the now deceased former ace of the Marlins, Jose Fernandez, and beforehand he dedicated the game to him. It was a highly emotional night. Thus, Gio Gonzalez has been going too good for too long for a starter that has plenty of holes in his profile. Gonzalez’s swing and miss rate over those five wins was 7% and it is just 8% on the year. His swing and miss rate does not support his strikeout rate,. His velocity is also down from 90.1 MPH in May and June to 89.1 in July and August. Gonzalez has the second highest strand rate in MLB at 85.7%. He also has one of the lowest BABIP at .241. Gio Gonzalez is not close to being as good as his shiny ERA suggests. He’s been perhaps the most fortunate pitcher in the majors with unsustainable luck in every luck-driven statistic. Aside from that, have you seen the Nationals play without Turner, Harper, Werth and Adam Eaton? They look more like the Phillies but they are priced like all those players are not on the rack. Big time overlay here.

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