Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 PM EST.
1:05 PM EST. Vance Worley has struck out 37 batters in 56 innings. That’s not very good. His ERA/xERA split of 4.82/4.53 isn’t very good either. However, his batted ball profile of 60% grounders, 20% line-drives and 20% fly-balls is not only strong but it bodes well at this small ballpark. Vance Worley’s performance today likely won’t be a dominating one but we’re not buying Worley. This wager is all about fading Philadelphia’s Jake Thompson, who is set to make his third start of the year.
Thompson’s first start of 2017 occurred On July 28 against Atlanta in which he went five full and allowed five hits and two runs. That earned him another start, five days later on August 2 against the Angels. In that second start, Thompson again went five innings, only this time he was tagged for nine hits and seven runs before getting yanked. He was subsequently sent back down to Lehigh Valley, where he started two games and was whacked in the second one, as he allowed six runs in six innings. Now 22 days after his last MLB start, Thompson will make another go of it here. Last year, he went 3-6 with a 5.70 ERA in 54 innings for the Phillies. He took a step back, as his strikeout rate slipped during first taste of AAA and it slipped even further in the majors. He had a league-worst first-pitch strike rate that led to higher than expected control and he was awful versus lefties and not exactly dominant v righties either. In 15 innings at this level this year, Thompson’s balls hit hard % is 40%, which would be the second worst mark in baseball if he qualified. In 111 innings at Lehigh Valley, Thompson struck out just 84 batters while issuing 46 walks. Thompson is just 23 years old so there is still time for him to develop but right now he’s not even close. This is also a bad matchup for Thompson against a hard hitting team with both speed and power.
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Miami -1½ +127 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)