Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:40 PM EST.
10:05 PM EST. Sometimes the line dictates the play and that is certainly the case here so allow us to set it up for you. The Rangers have won six of their last nine games while Andrew Cashner has a 3.31 ERA after 20 starts. What makes this line so curious is that Andrew Heaney has made just one start this year and it occurred last week in Baltimore in which he lasted a mere 5.1 frames after allowing four jacks (!), not to mention a .304 BAA. It’s is therefore odd or unreasonable that the Halos are favored in the -150 to -160 range when this market pays so much attention to ERA’s.
A closer look however, reveals that Texas swept Detroit, split four games with the South Side and defeated the Angels in the opener of this series to comprise of their six wins. They lost 10-1 last night. Furthermore, Andrew Heaney will not be pitching in Baltimore here. Take away those four jacks in that small park against a home-run hitting team and his pitching line would look entirely different. In making his first start in over one full year, Heaney had a 15% swing and miss rate and didn’t walk a single batter. We have to trust that he’s feeling rather jubilant after such a fine performance, despite the results. With that one start under his belt with no ill effects, Heaney is in line to do very well here. The line says so.
As far as Andrew Cashner goes, well, we’ve been suggesting that you ignore his surface stats because they are a mirage and our position on that has not changed one bit. In his last start, Cahsner walked four and struck out two but pitched to a 3.18 ERA. Mirage, my friends. In 120 innings overall, Cashner has a despicable BB/K split of 48/61. He also has a 5.81 xERA but that xERA is 6.83 over his last four starts. Andrew Cashner’s ERA over his last four starts is 2.10. That’s four runs lower than his xERA and quite frankly, it’s absurd. It’s time for Cashner’s charmed existence to come to an end and this line strongly suggests that’s precisely what will take place here.
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L.A. ANGELS -1½ +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)