Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST.
8:10 PM EST. Clayton Richard is another veteran pitcher who can provide value in small doses. Few starters are more successful against lefties than Richard is (1.93 ERA), and that mark has been backed up by an elite 2.67 xERA. He's much more mediocre than good against righties and the Cardinals will send up mostly right-handed bats but with three left-handed bats in the line-up, Clayton may be able to work out of whatever trouble he gets himself into. Richard still has 111 K’s in 153 frames to go along with a 57% groundball rate and we’ll live with whatever result he delivers here because this bet is all about fading Lance Lynn.
Lynn has a 3.05 ERA this year after 25 starts. He also has a 2.62 ERA at home after 11 starts. Over his last three starts, Lynn is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.00. All of that looks sweet on paper and so this market is going to pay dearly to back Lynn’s surface stats but we promise you that ALL OF IT, the overall ERA, the home ERA and his ERA over his last three starts, is all a massive fluke. Lance Lynn has been riding a wave of extreme good fortune this entire season and at some point it’s going to catch up to him. Lynn’s swing and miss rate since the beginning of July is 5%. His first-pitch strike rate this year is 51%. Over his last five starts covering 30 innings, Lynn has walked 18, struck out 19 and posted a WHIP of 2.10. His 2.10 WHIP over those last five games is actually higher than his 1.93 ERA over that same stretch, which is completely absurd. A 2.10 WHIP does not equate to a 1.93 ERA. Lynn comes in with the highest strand rate in MLB at 86.4%. He also comes in with the lowest BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) among all starters today at .234. His xERA since the beginning of July is 6.22 and yet here he is, priced like he’s pitching like Carlos Martinez when in fact, he’s pitching more like Matt Cain. Lance Lynn is MLB’s luckiest and most overpriced pitcher and we’re really hoping that the world finds out just how bad he truly is here.
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San Diego +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)