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Philadelphia @ SAN DIEGO
Philadelphia +138 over SAN DIEGO

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +138 Bet365  +135 SportsInteraction +135 5DIMES +133

Posted at 12:30 PM EST.

10:10 PM EST. The Padres are not usually overpriced but this is one time that they are because Mark Leiter pitches for the Phillies and has had very little MLB exposure this year or last. Furthermore, Dinelson Lamet made his season debut on May 25 and has been in the rotation ever since. Lamet now comes in with a 6-4 record and a 2.14 ERA over his last three starts. Those results have him overpriced here in a big way. Lamet’s xERA over his last three starts was 5.39. His first-pitch strike rate last game was 48% and overall it’s at a weak 52%. He also had a 36%/27%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over that span so when hitters are making contact off him, it’s hard contact. Dinelson has outstanding strikeout numbers (85 K’s in 68 frames) but he’s only made it past the fifth inning in five of his 13 starts because he throws so many pitches per AB. He has made it out of the sixth inning just twice. Dinelson is very worthy of backing when taking back a price but he now takes on the role of being a significant favorite. If all goes well for Dinelson here, he’ll still only pitch five innings. That’s not reliable enough to be priced in this range. We’re also seeing severe signs of fatigue, as he continues to get the ball up in the zone and fall behind hitters.

Mark Leiter’s underlying numbers are so interesting and very worthy of getting behind. Leiter has appeared in 19 games for the Phillies but 16 of those came in relief. However, Leiter is no stranger to starting, as he made 74 starts in the minors in 100 appearances. Leiter was a 22nd-round pick of the Phillies in 2013. He has been a reliable workhorse with loads of durability and stamina despite a slight frame. Leiter uses a drop and drive delivery that he repeats consistently. He generally throws consistent strikes and is able to locate his fastball to both sides of the plate. His other pitches consist of a curveball and change-up that continually shows growth. Here’s where it gets interesting. Over his last 11 innings out of the pen, Leiter has walked two and struck out 17. His swing and miss rate over that span was 17% and it was 19% in his last appearance. His xERA over that same span was 2.00, which is obviously unsustainable but it shows his progress and upside. There is a huge difference between starting and relieving and we understand that all of the above metrics occurred in relief. However, Leiter is a career starter and those encouraging numbers surely must have instilled a ton of confidence in him. Leiter was making batters look silly up there. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s the son of Al Leiter, a great pitcher in his own right who dominated at this level for years as a member of the Yanks, Mets and Blue Jays over a 17-year career. Working out of the pen the for most of the year, Mark Leiter was showing great deception and greatly improved sequencing and if it carries over into this rotation gig, we may be getting the bargain of the day here and we’re willing to take that gamble.  

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Our Pick

Philadelphia +138 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.76)

 

 

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