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Cincinnati @ CHICAGO
Cincinnati +155 over CHICAGO

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +153 Bet365  +155 SportsInteraction +155 5DIMES +154

Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

8:10 PM EST. While there is no value in losing any bet, we have to stick with taking back inflated prices against teams’ and starters that don’t win often enough to warrant the price. In 15 starts, Kyle Hendricks has four wins. In eight starts at Wrigley, Hendricks has two wins. In 83 innings overall, Hendricks has a BB/K split of 26/69. Hendricks has shown neither the strikeout rate nor the control he displayed in 2015 or 2016, his first two full seasons as a Chicago starter. His fastball velocity has been more than two mph lower than in 2016 and nearly three mph lower than in 2015, accompanied by a dip in his swing and miss rate. Hendricks is a finesse righty that is capable but he comes with more risk than ever before. Last year, he was helped by MLBs-best defense but xERA is always the reality check and Hendricks’ xERA is not elite.

We get that the Cubbies are tough to beat and that they underachieved in the first half but at the same time, almost every Cub had a career year last season that made them look better than they actually were. Somewhere in between last year’s wins and this year’s losses are the real Cubbies and while they are very good, they’re not invincible. Chicago is seven games over .500 and will now face one of MLB’s still most underrated starters. Luis Castillo is a rookie pitcher who looked like an impact hurler in July (3.62 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) and those marks came with strong skills support: 8.9 K’s/9, 2.4 BB’s/9, 55% groundballs and a terrific xERA of 3.44. However, the risk-averse should note that he had some big struggles getting strike one (52%) and throwing a high volume of strikes (38% ball%). Castillo, however, has filthy stuff and he’s only walked 26 batters all season. His first-pitch strike rate last game was 64% so perhaps July was just an outlier. Castillo is too good with too much reward to be taking back prices like this and therefore we must stick with the plan and keep playing the value. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)

 

 

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