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Posted at 10:15 AM EST.

2:10 PM EST. Sal Romano’s 2-4 record and 5.35 ERA isn’t likely going to turn any heads here. He’s only made seven starts this season at this level and was one of several candidates at the start of the year to audition to replace injured LHP Brandon Finnegan in the Cincinnati rotation. He’s failed and he’s succeeded and that trend is likely to continue. Romano recorded his first MLB win in his second start of 2017 with 6 K/1 BB in five innings at Colorado of all places. He then went six full against the Marlins two starts later and allowed just three hits and one run in a 6-3 Reds victory. In his last start at home against the Padres, Romano went six full again but allowed nine hits and five runs. Romano has good stuff but his 19 walks in 34 frames are worrisome. However, he has a 60% first-pitch strike rate over his past three starts and has walked two or less in four of his past six starts. 11 of those 19 walks occurred in two games. Romano has shown the ability to throw strikes. He’s durable and he goes right after hitters. Romano has struck out 20 batters over his past 24 frames and he’ll face a Brewers’ squad that strikes out more often than any team in the NL and whose offense is not in good form right now. When Romano is not walking guys (and that’s the risk here) he can be very difficult to hit. Regardless of what happens here, we know for sure that we’re getting the better starter here and so we’ll continue to fade Matt Garza.

We suggested that Matt Garza was about to blow up in a big way and that’s precisely what happened in his last start against Minnesota, a 13-4 win for the Twinkies. More injuries have cost Garza a chunk out of the first half, not that he was missed. There just aren't any plus offerings in his arsenal anymore. Garza’s velocity is in a multi-year decline, his secondary stuff is increasingly getting tattooed and there is no end in sight. Here’s the beauty of it all: Garza has a 3.54 ERA at home this year and that will catch the market’s eye. What that doesn’t tell you is that he has a 6.40 xERA at home and that he’s walked 10 and struck out 12 over his last 19 frames with a 7% swing and miss rate. That shiny home ERA also doesn’t reveal that 41% of balls hit were line-drives. Garza is one of MLB’s more beatable starters and he’ll now draw a home start against a Reds’ offense which has come alive again after scuffling for a few weeks after the break. Garza is coming off a disaster and has yielded a 6.38 xERA over his last four games started. The Reds are at their best against righty pitchers too. 

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