BEST LINES: Pinnacle +102 Bet365  -105 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES +101

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. We played Patrick Corbin last week at Wrigley and he and the Snakes were out of it early in a 16-4 loss but that happens from time to time and it sure isn’t going to prevent us from coming back on him here. Corbin had a weird stat line in July (3.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). Blame a 39% hit-rate for his high WHIP and a friendly 83% strand rate for his low ERA. In aggregate, his skills were very strong though with 10.6 K’s/9, few walks and a 47% groundball rate. His command sub-indicators were very good too with a 14% swing and miss rate and a 66% first-pitch strike rate. In fact, few starters have enjoyed a bigger skills growth from 2016 (4.49 xERA) to 2017 (3.41 xERA) than Corbin has. With an elite 2.88 xERA over a recent 12-game stretch combined with his aforementioned skills, Corbin is a prime stretch-run target.

The books aren’t idiots. If you bet Lester in that aforementioned game at Wrigley against Corbin and the Diamondbacks, you would have laid -175 to do so. Again, the Cubbies and Lester won that matchup in a 16-4 blowout and now you’ll pay a fraction of that price in the same matchup. Buyer beware. Jon Lester has eight wins in 24 starts. He’s lost only six times but his velocity is down while both his WHIP and xERA are up over last year’s mark. Jon Lester’s first-pitch strike rate is below average at 54%. The dude can pitch but he’s not the pitcher he used to be and we’ve seen plenty of shaky outings from him all year long. Arizona has maintained an outstanding .842 OPS at home this season and just saw Lester 11 days ago. This time, however, the line says they’ll get to him and that’s good enough for us.  

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