Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:00 PM EST.
7:10 PM EST. We’ve been attacking starters off long layoffs all season long and there are three of them going today. Tyson Ross, Scott Feldman and Miami’s starter Justin Nicolino are all off layoffs so a three-game (run-line-parlay) is a bet we’ll be making but in terms of flat wagering, this one looks the best of the bunch based on the price. The other two are higher priced but the Rocks are being sold short here because of their well-documented road struggles. That works for us.
Justin Nicolino has started a game since June 24. Dude has pitched just 20 innings all season and they haven’t been pretty. That comes as no surprise either after he went 3-6 with the Fish last season to go along with a 4.99/5.72 ERA/xERA split. Nicolino brings a two year combined WHIP of 1.69 into this start. Nicolino pitched in 30 games—25 starts—in 2015 and 2016. His results were less than satisfactory. His career xERA is 5.02. While his control is not bad, his K-rate of 3.5 K’s/9 is startlingly low, as is his career aggregate skills. His sum has never been enough to move the needle. His ERA/xERA combo along with pretty much everything else says nothing has changed other than the date. Justin Nicolino is also a lefty and the Rocks have been very good v southpaws all year long.
Ignore Jeff Hoffman’s home stats and what we have here is an elite pitcher. Coors can do that to starters. Hoffman has allowed just 30 hits in 37.2 road innings (.224 BAA) with 36 K’s and just eight walks issued. Hoffman's strikeout rate growth trend is terrific and is exactly what you'd want to see from a young pitcher on the rise. Scouts have been waiting for the 24-year-old Hoffman's upside and 96 mph fastball to translate into results for some time so his sudden explosion is not necessarily a fluke. The good news for us is that his overall stats on paper cover up his road stats and that’s something we can take advantage of here. Hoffman has a diverse arsenal with four velocity levels and has been lights out on the road. Man is he underpriced here so let’s hope it works out.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
Colorado -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)