Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:00 PM EST.
9:05 PM EST. Dylan Bundy’s stock is high with four wins in a row and a 3.18 ERA over that span while the Athletics stock is always low. Bundy is coming off a 10 strikeout, 0 walks outing against the Angels but it’s not all peaches and cream. Bundy has been tagged for 31 runs in 61 road innings. He’s prone to giving up jacks because of his 32%/47% groundball/fly-ball split and there was a stretch very recently in which he surrendered nine bombs in five games. He’s also approaching unfamiliar territory, as he’s thrown 134 frames this year after throwing just 109 all of last season. After missing all of 2013, Bundy threw just 92 innings in 2014, 22 innings in 2015 and 109 last year. Dude is a decent pitcher but his xERA of 4.67 says there is still work to do.
The blueprint to beat the Orioles is as simple as 1, 2 and 3 and Sean Manaea is the type of pitcher that can execute it. You see, the Orioles love to swing at pitches. Throw junk out of the strike zone and these sluggers have a zero to slim chance of running into one. We have seen a slew of junk pitchers make these Orioles look silly at the plate and if Manaea has done his studying, he should have his way these free swinging batters. Manaea has 112 K’s in 119 innings. He has an elite 14% swing and miss rate. Only two Orioles, Tim Beckham and Ruben Tejada have ever seen Manaea and they’re a combined 1 for 8 (.125 BA) against him. Manaea's producing whiffs with ease. His change-up (25% of pitches) and slider (20%) have been dominant, as each has produced a 20%+ swing and miss rate. Manaea is one of the best breakout targets in the game given his electric swing-and-miss stuff, his groundball tilt and favorable home park. This is a favorable matchup too but because it’s Baltimore v Oakland, we get Manaea at a bargain price.
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OAKLAND -102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.96)