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Posted at 12:30 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. This line makes no sense. The Red Sox have the better starter here, they’re the hottest team in baseball with eight wins in a row while the Yanks are seeing BB gun pellets and have lost seven of 10, including getting shut out by Marco Estrada last night in Toronto. While the Red Sox have scored 62 runs over their past 10 games, the Yanks have scored 36 over that same span which includes 11 in one game.

Jaime Garcia pinballed from Atlanta to Minnesota to New York in the space of a week. Still, moving from a rebuilding team to a team fighting for a division title probably helped his energy level but it’s not going to do a thing for his skills. Garcia used to have fine control, but it’s been creeping up lately and his low first-pitch strike rate doesn’t exactly give hope for a turnaround. Garcia’s been a groundball pitcher his whole career. Good thing, since Yankee Stadium doesn’t smile on fly balls, with +46% LH HR/+25% RH HR. Pitching for the Yanks, Garcia could be in line for some wins but with numbers trending the wrong way, there could be some rocky outings and this could sure be one of them. Garcia has a mere K/BB ratio of 2-1 with 96 K’s and 48 walks issued over 124 innings. Since switching over to the AL from the NL, he has walked seven batters in 11 innings with an xERA of 6.11. Despite the pennant-chasing environment, backing Garcia brings too much risk, especially in this spot against the Red Sox.

Eduardo Rodriguez tweaked his right knee while warming up in the bullpen prior to his June 1 start at Baltimore. That is the same knee that he dislocated in 2016, which resulted in his 1st half getting washed out by that dislocated kneecap that whacked his mechanics, but 29 K’s in the final 17 innings put a strong coda on his 2nd half rebound. Rodriguez has made just four starts since being injured back on June 1. He’s struck out 89 batters in 82 frames overall and appears to be getting stronger. Rodriguez brings risk because he’s been so inconsistent but all told, he gives up less than a hit per inning (72 hits allowed in 82 frames) and his K-rate remains among the elite. We’re investing.

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