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Posted at 10:35 AM EST.

Blake Snell spent most of May and June at AAA-Durham in an attempt to get back on track, but his results since his return show no real difference. Home runs are still flying out of the park (1.4 hr/9), and a 50% first-pitch-strike rate keeps generating free passes. Snell has the stuff to do well and we trust there is going to be some good opportunities to get behind him and his winless record but this isn’t that time. For one, the Rays have cooled off considerably and they lead the AL in striking out. That does not bode well here against Danny Salazar, who is the target for this wager.

In early June, Danny Salazar barely clung to the bottom in the three-star tier. The flame-throwing righty was striking everyone out, sure, but he also was giving up almost two homers and five walks per nine innings and had a 5.40 ERA. Not great. Salazar was coming off the first of two bullpen appearances, a measure the Indians hoped would help him get things straightened out. After his second outing from the pen, he made another move, this time to the DL. The 27-year-old came off the DL on July 22 and has been HOT FLAME EMOJIS ever since. In 20 innings, Salazar has fanned 28 batters, walked only five, and has surrendered only eight hits en route to a 1.35 ERA.

Let’s get this out of the way: It’s only been three starts. There are tons of guys who can look good, nay, unhittable for three consecutive starts. Having said that, it appears to us that Salazar is taking steps on the proverbial journey from thrower to pitcher. Since coming back to the rotation, Salazar has significantly increased his fastball usage, at the expense of his vaunted changeup. Leaning on the 96 mph heater has allowed him to throw more strikes (a novel concept), and his 49.2 percent zone rate is nearly three percentage points higher than his career average. He has also enjoyed more success getting ahead of batters, throwing a first-pitch strike nearly two-thirds of the time, a rate almost 10 percentage points higher than his previous mark. In addition to the fastball and changeup tweak, Salazar also is throwing more sliders. Heading into 2017, he hadn’t thrown the pitch more than 10 percent of the time since 2014, and had all but scrapped it from his arsenal. In his past three starts, the slider has reappeared, being thrown around 12 percent of the time, and getting whiffs in almost 17 percent of his offerings. In three short outings, the slider went from an afterthought to Salazar’s second-most whiffable (yes, I know this isn’t a word, but you get me) pitch.In his most recent performance, a seven inning,

In his most recent performance, a seven inning, 12-strikeout gem against the Yankees, Salazar got 17 swinging strikes. An outing against the White Sox in late July produced 22 (!) swinging strikes. All told, Salazar has a 17.6% swinging-strike rate in his past three starts, almost six percentage points higher than his 2017 tally before the DL stint. Another change for Salazar has come from his release point. Earlier in the season it appeared as though he struggled finding consistency with his mechanics, likely leading to the aforementioned control issues. His sparkly 1.35 ERA in those three brilliant starts can be partially attributed to a .189 BABIP, along with an 86.2 percent strand rate and 6.7 percent HR/FB rate. Those marks are almost impossible to sustain and should trend closer to Salazar’s career levels, even factoring in the improved pitch mix and mechanics. That said, with Salazar’s prolific strikeout abilities, an ERA hovering around 3.00 and a 1.10-ish WHIP certainly would play and should be relatively attainable. If this is the new Danny Salazar, we definitely need to re-evaluate his position as an elite hurler. If Salazar continues this run, the price is going to be exorbitant, so now is the time to get behind him up and that’s precisely what we’re doing here.

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