BEST LINES: Pinnacle -107 Bet365 -105 SportsInteraction -115 5DIMES -110

Posted at 10:00 AM EST.

3:35 PM EST. Like most baseball bettors, we can’t stomach the Athletics either but sometimes you just have to plug your nose and hope for the best and this is one of those times. Jharel Cotton is a change-up specialist that was dynamite last year after the trade from L.A., both at Triple-A (2.82 ERA at Nashville) and in his late-season audition. We have seen that dynamite plenty of times this season too. Cotton is still working things out. He’s spent time between the majors, the DL and the minors and the results have been mixed in his 85 innings at this level over 16 starts. Cotton's gopheritis has put the kibosh on what many thought would be a breakout campaign, as a 46% fly-ball rate has translated into 15 HR allowed in 16 starts. However, Cotton has not allowed a jack in three of his last four appearances and his groundball/fly-ball split over that span has improved greatly too. In fact, Cotton has a 50% groundball rate, a 15% line-drive rate and 35% fly-ball rate combined over his past two starts. Baby steps my friends, baby steps but he’s getting closer and is 100% more appealing than his counterpart here.

Yovani Gallardo is starting today for one reason and one reason only and that’s because everything is about money. You see, the Mariners will pay this stiff over 9M to pitch this season, which up to this point is more than a half a million a start. Gallardo has made just 17 starts and for their 9M, the M’s have received in return four victories, a 1.46 WHIP and an xERA of 5.88. Incidentally, Gallardo has made more “favorable park” starts than any pitcher in baseball. Where it gets sweet (for us) is on paper, where Gallardo has a 3.80 ERA over his last three starts and that’s a stat the market puts emphasis on so allow us to elaborate on that. Over those three starts covering 17 frames, Gallardo has walked 10 and struck out eight. His 6.81 xERA over that span is a full three runs higher than his actual ERA. His 4% swing and miss rate since returning to the rotation is putrid and it’s also the lowest of his career. Gallardo has regressed to a replacement-level starter—at best. That continues a multi-year trend for Gallardo, who has only earned positive returns in one season since 2012 and actually has been below replacement level in 2016 and 2017. This is one of the worst starters in the game with practically no skills remaining that we get to fade in an evenly priced game. Yeah, Oakland is unappealing for the most part but they win at home often.

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