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Posted at 11:40 AM EST.

8:10 PM EST. We are not one to zigzag between games but there are exceptions to every rule, as nothing is in stone when it comes to sports betting. Yesterday we bet the Brewers and lost so coming back on the Twinkies today would be zig zagging, something we try and avoid but today is a little different.

Adalberto Mejia has done a nice job of keeping his team in games and with his off-speed stuff, he’s been able to keep teams’ off balance and we like his chances to keep the free swinging Brewers off balance here. That said, Mejia is not the target here at all. The target here is to fade Matt Garza and not to stop until further notice.

Matt Garza is about to blow up in a big way and we’re not going to miss it. More injuries have cost him a chunk out of the first half, not that he was missed. Garza played with his pitch mix and boosted his groundball rate slightly but that's just shuffling deck chairs on a doomed ocean liner. There just aren't any plus offerings in his arsenal anymore. Velocity in multi-year decline, his secondary stuff is increasingly getting tattooed and now it’s going to turn into a bad scene. Here’s the beauty of it all: Garza has a 2.30 ERA over his last three starts covering 16 frames. What that doesn’t tell you is that he’s walked eight and struck out nine over that span for a vile ratio. That shiny ERA also doesn’t reveal that 41% of balls hit were line-drives. Garza’s xERA (6.47) since returning from injury is more than four runs higher than his 2.30 surface ERA. Dude is going to get whacked and we can almost guarantee it’s going to happen at this park against this team. Current Twinkies are hitting .352 against Garza and he’s never been worse than he is right now.

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