Milwaukee @ MINNESOTA
Milwaukee +102 over MINNESOTA

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +102 Bet365 -105 SportsInteraction -105 5DIMES -105

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Minnesota does nothing well except play great outfield defense. They're simply playing over their heads. No team is outplaying their third-order winning percentage by more. It's possible to squint and see them sustaining that but not likely. When the Twinkies are favored, they are fade material and we’ll gladly step in against them here.

Ervin Santana boasts a 3.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 22 starts in 2017. However, after 13 starts, he had a 2.20 ERA and a 0.89 ERA so things have been heading south and they are not about to stop. You see, Santana's actually posting some of the worst skills of his career. Pay attention to the near two-run gap between xERA (5.06) and ERA. Santana's benefited from an unsustainable low hit rate of 23% and high strand rate of 80%. Santana's posting fewer Ks than ever before and it corresponds with a drop in his swing and miss rate. He's been unable to sustain 2016's control improvement and his underlying first-pitch strike rate and Ball% remain mediocre. Santana's current pace simply isn't sustainable. With fewer strikeouts, more walks, and an insane amount of luck, it's time to cash out and sell Santana, as things will get much worse from here.

Minnesota ranks 26th out of 30 teams in OPS against lefties and will face one here in Brent Suter. Suter looked like an upper-tier starter in July, at least on the surface (1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP). His underlying skills were intriguing too: 7.5 K’s/9, 1.5 BB’s/9 and 47% grounders. With soft-tossing stuff and elite first-pitch strike ability (71%), Suter is looking like a lefty version of Josh Tomlin. That’s good enough for us to get behind in this spot as Milwaukee is simply superior in every offensive category and every pitching category too.

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Our Pick

Milwaukee +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110