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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. If you watched or bet the Reds over the weekend against the Cardinals, it’s real difficult to come back on them here. At the same time, if you have watched the Padres lately, they’ve been extremely tough with nine wins in their past 16 games, which included giving the Pirates much more than they bargained for over the entire weekend series. The Padres lost two of three in Pittsburgh but they scored 15 runs against a tough staff in a tough park and they led in all three games at some point. Recency bias is in play here, as San Diego has more public appeal right now, which is our prompt to step in.

Jhoulys Chacin does not match up well against the Reds' above-average offense (.327 OBA-seventh) vs. RHP. Even though his groundball profile (52%) could help at Great American Ball Park, opposing offenses have hit a number of line drives (25% line-drive %) and home runs (1.7 HR/9 and 24% hr/f) off of Chacin in his away (7.35 ERA) starts. LHB have hit well (.828 OPS) with harder contact (35%) against him too. Chacin has been batting practice on the road and this is about the worst possible park for him to succeed in.

Tim Adleman is not as bad as his 5.42 ERA suggests. For one, he registers more strikeouts (9.3 K’s/9) in his home starts. Secondly, his xERA of 4.86 isn’t even as bad as it looks because xERA does not take park factors into consideration. Adleman’s weak stats on paper does not show that there are some life to his skills that are backed  by a strong 12.3% swing and miss rate and decent 62% first-pitch strike rate. A low 69% strand rate and high 17% hr/f have wreaked havoc on his actual ERA but at the end of the day, we’re getting a bargain price on the better offense and better starter. There's some real value here on the Reds and we’re on it. Play Cinci -110 if you prefer but we like to go for the kill and will therefore spot the runs with a big take-back.

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