BEST LINES: Pinnacle +101 Bet365 -110 SportsInteraction -105 5DIMES -110

Posted at 10:50 AM EST.

1:05 PM EST. The skills of Carlos Carrasco have been obvious for years but so have his health woes. After losing all of 2012 and much of 2013 to Tommy John surgery, he’s been nicked up the past few years and so he’s never approached 200 innings for any season. We’re now going to test his durability because fatigue could set in for a guy that’s not used to throwing so many innings in a season. Furthermore, he’s prone to giving up jacks and that plays into the Yankees’ strength. Lastly, Carrasco has been so much better on the road this year with a 3.44 ERA as opposed to his 4.47 ERA at Progressive Field. We’ve also heard some rumblings about a tight pectoral muscle in July and if that’s more than rumblings, the risk increases greatly.

Meanwhile, Luis Severino has been outstanding on the road with a 2.71/2.55 ERA/xERA split. Severino is truly in the midst of a full breakout in 2017 (3.03 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) and don't expect it to be a one-year blip. His skills have been off the charts with 10.2 K’s/9, 2.3 BB’s/9 and 52% grounders. His ability to elevate his upper-90s fastball and also spot his stuff low in the zone has driven his surge, one that has been supported by a 14% swing and miss rate, 66% first-pitch strike rate and 34% ball%. At age 23, Severino is a premium young starter with Cy Young potential and we’re not going to miss him when we don’t have to spot anything to get behind him.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.