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Posted at 10:50 AM EST.

2:15 PM EST. This is the first game of a DH and will feature Danny Duffy versus Marco Gonzales.

There is a big discrepancy between Danny Duffy’s 3.42 ERA and his 4.85 xERA, which means a correction to the bad is eventually coming. Duffy has just 85 K’s in 108 frames to go along with a pedestrian groundball/fly-ball split of 38%/41%. The lack of Ks has done a number on Duffy's xERA but a fortunate hr/f has kept his surface ERA from unraveling. That stingy walk rate should continue but his drop in fastball velocity is a concern. Duffy is a decent starter but he’s not as good as his surface stats suggest, which in turn has created an inflated price on him here.

Marco Gonzales was traded from the Cardinals to the Mariners near the deadline in exchange for minor league outfielder Tyler O'Neil, the No. 2 prospect in Seattle's organization. Gonzales starred at Gonzaga University in Spokane, Washington on his way to becoming a first-round pick of the Cardinals in the 2013 MLB draft. So, there are two positives working in Gonzales’ favor here. For one, he’s going “home” and will now pitch for the team he grew up rooting for and watching and secondly, the M’s thought highly enough of him to give up one of their best prospects to get him.  

Gonzales has over 300 innings in the minors with close to 200 of those innings having been spent in the pitching difficult PCL league. He only allowed an oppBA of .238 in those aforementioned PCL innings. Gonzales shot through the Cardinals system after being drafted in the first round in 2013, reaching the majors the following season, and then succumbing to Tommy John surgery in 2015. The 6’1”, 195-pound lefty out of Gonzaga was never considered a high-upside pitcher, but his floor is considered to be a rock-solid #3 starter who will pitch above his stuff and offer good ratios, if the Ks aren’t always there. Reports are that the command on his fastball is near to what it was pre-injury, and that he’s working more consistently 91 than 88 or 89 with it. The change is still a plus-to-plus-plus pitch that he continues to throw in any count. Paired with an average curve and a command profile that still projects plus when he’s all the way back, Gonzales still has middle-of-the-rotation upside. He’s always kept his team in games while limiting the damage. Gonzales is a well-established lefty-killer, currently holding them to a .143/.200/.214 slash line and now he’s paid his dues. We like the profile, we like the price and we like the team he pitches for because they can score runs with anyone.

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