N.Y. Yankees @ CLEVELAND
N.Y. Yankees +125 over CLEVELAND

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +125 Bet365 +125 SportsInteraction +130 5DIMES +125

Posted at 10:20 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. A parade of injuries to Danny Salazar that began in in June of 2016 reads like a big flashing caution sign. Shoulder fatigue, elbow soreness and forearm tightness. Salazar has thrown just 68 innings this season. He missed almost two months this year because of more shoulder issues but was dominant in his July 22 return. He pitched seven one-hit scoreless innings with eight K’s and no walks against the Blue Jays. His second game back against the South Side was good too, as he went six full and allowed three hits and two runs with two walks issued and eight more K’s. Temptation is to think “ace!", but he's yet to throw 200 IP or show control issues are behind him. He’s also prone to giving up jacks because he’s a two-pitch pitcher and when his sinker isn’t sharp, he becomes vulnerable. Salazar’s 39%/25%/36% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates reveals why he is prone to giving up jacks in bunches like he did earlier this year when he surrendered 10 bombs over a five-game stretch. Salazar is a quality starter with risk. He can certainly dominate but we’re not going to trust him against the HR hitting Yanks at a HR hitting park. Salazar’s 4.63 ERA and 20% hr/f is simply too hazardous to get behind.

Jordan Montgomery has been a big surprise this season. Montgomery was one of the AL's more valuable starters during June with a 2.59 ERA and 1.05 WHIP to go along with his xERA of 3.15. Things have been shakier in July but it’s not because his skills fell off, it’s because luck-driven stats (strand rate, BABIP) worked him against him. Montgomery hasn’t just feasted on same-sided hitters either. He’s been effective against both sides with a 52% groundball rate, 104 K’s in 111 frames and a 13% swing and miss rate. With good control mixed in, Montgomery’s sub-4 xERA and 1.22 WHIP come with the support of a solid skill foundation and there could be more to come. We’ll bite. 

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Our Pick

N.Y. Yankees +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas