Toronto @ HOUSTON
HOUSTON -1½ +122 over Toronto

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +122 Bet365 -1½ +120 SportsInteraction -1½ +115 5DIMES -1½ +120

Posted at 10:20 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Charlie Morton - strikeout artist? Acquired mostly as an innings-eater by Philadelphia in 2016, Charlie Morton didn't do much eating after a torn hamstring ended his season in April. Morton surfaced with Houston for 2017, where he's posted more Ks (97) than innings (88) thus far through 15 starts. A 33-year-old flashing never-before-seen velocity? Odd, but we'll take it. A couple ticks on the fastball and a knockout curve (22% swing and miss) have worked wonders for Morton's K-rate. The strikeout gains haven't come at the expense of control either. As a result, his command has skyrocketed. Morton's two-seamer continues to be a worm killer (60% grounders). Charlie Morton has long been an extreme groundball pitcher with decent control but his newfound ability to miss bats makes for an attractive target that is completely legit. He’ll now face a Blue Jays team that is gripping their bats tightly and that is getting used to being blown out.

Marco Estrada is coming off back-to-back good pitching lines but that’s all they are. He hasn’t stepped up his game and was exactly the same pitcher in those two starts that was getting whacked for the first four months of the season. Incidentally, those two last starts came against Oakland and the South Side. He’ll now face Houston, who has struck out the least amount of times in MLB. Marco Estrada has out-performed poor secondary numbers for basically his entire career but that train has come to a screeching halt as the magic disappears from his trusty changeup. In those last two starts, Estrada’s groundball/fly-ball split was 27%/58%. He enters this game with a 7.22 ERA, 7.94 xERA and 2.06 WHIP through his past 10 starts and this isn’t the basement dwelling A’s or White Sox he’ll be facing. The fade continues. 

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Our Pick

HOUSTON -1½ +122 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.44)

Washington +128 over Houston
Kansas City +122 over Baltimore
Milwaukee -1½ +144 over St. Louis
San Diego -103 over Toronto