Tampa Bay @ HOUSTON
Tampa Bay +141 over HOUSTON

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +141 Bet365 +135 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES +135

Posted at 11:20 AM EST. 

8:10 PM EST. Colin McHugh has made just two starts since returning from an injury that shelved him for the entire year up to that point. Both of his starts this year have come on the road at Baltimore and Detroit and he’ll now make his first home start. McHugh gave up two jacks in Baltimore. In his two starts, he induced six groundouts to 22 fly-ball outs for a GB/FB split of 21%/54%. That does not bode well in this park. His velocity is down to 90.1 MPH. An increasingly elevated hit rate suggests that 2014 was a fluke, as more fly-balls and newfound HR issues helped fuel a mediocre dominant start/disaster start split. Yeah, he could rebound slightly, but his upside is less interesting than it was a year ago and now he’s much overpriced.

Blake Snell is winless this year in 13 starts, which is bordering on ludicrous because he’s a quality starter. Because he’s without a win, we get him at a bargain price here and we’re all over it. Snell struggled early on and was sent down on May 13 before returning on June 28. This top prospect brought his big strikeout rate with him this time. His swing and miss rate of 15% since retuning is a nice building block and greater success should follow as soon as his luck normalizes. Blake Snell has struck 19 batters in his last 21 frames. His line-drive rate (14%) and swinging strikes reveal his true upside. Perhaps Snell is not quite "there" yet, but he is on his way and so now would be the time to invest in his live arm. Overlay.

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Our Pick

Tampa Bay +141 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.82)

Washington +128 over Houston
Kansas City +122 over Baltimore
Milwaukee -1½ +144 over St. Louis
San Diego -103 over Toronto