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Posted at 11:20 AM EST. 

7:05 PM EST. The Orioles are coming off a three-game sweep over the then hottest team in baseball, the K.C. Royals. You’ll now pay a premium to back the O’s, at least in the first game of this series but Chris Tillman is pure fade material so we’re going to stick with the plan here.

Tillman’s first-pitch strike rate is the worst in the majors at 47%. His first-pitch strike rate over his last 10 starts is a sickening 41%. His batted ball profile of 36% grounders, 28% line drives and 36% fly-balls is dreadful. Tillman has one victory in 14 starts this season and his ERA/xERA split is also one of the worst in the game. This one is really a no-brainer because Chris Tillman can’t be recommended as a dog, let alone a favorite. His peripherals across the board are vile.

Matt Boyd’s true value is hidden beneath is 5.30 ERA. The beautiful thing about that is the market sees his surface ERA but we go under the hood to find true value and regular readers of this section know that Boyd has been on our radar. Matt Boyd’s xERA since returning on July 18 is 3.78. Over that span, he has a 64% first-pitch strike rate, an elite 15% swing and miss rate and an elite line-drive rate of 16%. Batters’ are not squaring up on Boyd with any regularity. In his last start, Boyd went seven full and pitched to an ERA/xERA split of 3.68/2.74. The Tigers are 3-0 in his starts since his return. Boyd’s huge skills growth across the board at the end of last year and now in the stretch run this year is supported by his underlying numbers. He’s at the right age for another step up and is 100% the better option here. Let’s hope it works out the way it’s supposed to.

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