St. Louis @ MILWAUKEE
St. Louis +103 over MILWAUKEE

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +103 Bet365 -105 SportsInteraction +105 5DIMES +100

Posted at 12:45 PM EST. 

8:10 PM EST. Brent Suter is not supposed to be in the major-leagues. After placing Junior Guerra on the disabled list in early April, the Brewers recalled Suter from Triple-A. He pitched in long relief back then and was subsequently sent back down at the end of April and recalled again roughly six weeks later on June 13 to start against these same Cardinals in St. Louis. Suter lasted 4.2 innings that day and surrendered three runs. He was removed from the rotation after striking out one Cardinal batter. However, Chase Anderson and Matt Garza would subsequently land on the DL and as a result, a rotation spot opened up for Suter and here we are. Five starts later and Suter comes in with a 2.40 ERA after 45 frames. In his last start against the Cubbies in the opener of that highly anticipated series, Suter was a 2-1 winner after going seven full. He left to a standing ovation. His line-drive rate that day last week against Chicago was 33%. As a 31st-round pick in the 2012 draft out of Harvard, he has a very low ceiling. However, he’s been the benefactor of throwing strikes and a ton of luck, as hard hit balls, and there are plenty of those, are being hit right at people. Suter does not have any plus offerings and once again will be at the mercy of BABIP. His stock is much too high.

Luke Weaver is major league ready. He’s made just one start this year for the Cards and that occurred last week against the Diamondbacks. He lost that game 4-0 but all four runs came in one inning. Weaver goes after hitters with a solid 91-96 mph fastball that he keeps low in the zone with terrific late action. Weaver throws with very clean, athletic mechanics that he repeats consistently and allows him to own plus control and command. His best pitch is a change-up that he has the confidence to use in any count. Because of his quality three-pitch mix, command, and aggressiveness, he registers a lot of strikeouts, which bodes well here against a Brewers team that leads in the NL in striking out. At Memphis in the hitter-friend Pacific Coast League, Weaver went 9-1 with a 1.81 ERA with 69 K’s in 66 innings. The market won’t see that. Instead, they’ll see a poor pitching line last game out but we’re ignoring and focusing in on his outstanding stuff. This is a quality prospect coming off a an incredible first half in the PCL league and that didn’t look a bit out of place against the D-Backs. A buying opportunity awaits.

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Our Pick

St. Louis +103 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)

Washington +128 over Houston
Kansas City +122 over Baltimore
Milwaukee -1½ +144 over St. Louis
San Diego -103 over Toronto