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Posted at 3:45 PM EST. 

7:05 PM EST. Homer Bailey was hammered for eight earned runs in his first 2017 start, allowing six hits with three walks issued and 2 K’s in 1.2 innings. He returned from 2016 elbow surgery to remove bone spurs after returning from Tommy John surgery. Bailry had been limited to only eight starts since 2014 before his 2017 debut. He’s seven starts in this year and he has a BB/K split of 14/20 in 33 innings, a WHIP of 2.01 and an xERA of 6.38. The Reds are just seeing what they got here. They have time and money invested into Bailey and they want to see if he can fully rebound. This experiment may work out but right now, don’t let them experiment on your bankroll. This arbitrage play couldn’t have failed more spectacularly thus far.

Jameson Taillon has overcome several health issues already throughout his young career, including a big one this year. Diagnosed in early May with testicular cancer, he missed just over a month before returning to the Pittsburgh rotation. We’ve backed Taillon many times this season and that’s because there has been great value and because there is a lot to like in his skill-set. Given his top prospect pedigree, more whiffs could be in his future than the 73 he’s posted in 76 frames. He keeps the ball on the ground at an extremely high rate, and plays in a home park that plays neutral for LHB, while reducing RHB homers by 24%. The point is that Taillon isn't going to run into too many problems via the long ball, and is also due for some better luck on balls in play. Taillon was blasted for nine earned runs in his latest outing, which bumped his ERA up nearly a full run and lowered his stock but he's been solid all season. He's combined a strong ground ball tilt with the ability to miss bats, but he is still not getting the credit he deserves. That’s when we step in.

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