BEST LINES: Pinnacle +151 Bet365 +155 SportsInteraction +150 5DIMES +155

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

8:10 PM EST. James Shields is not going to get a lot of space here. We’ve been fading him for years and he’s almost never worth backing but we’re not going to concern ourselves with that. Shields’ has at least a decent history against current Toronto batters so maybe he’ll give his team a chance to win here. We’re not counting on a decent outing from Shields, as that would be unreasonable. We’re simply playing the value here and in that regard, the Jays with Marco Estrada favored in this range on the road is absurd.

Toronto’s last three victories (all at home) were of the extremely lucky variety. The Jays walked off last week with two grand slams and a three run rally in the ninth. They could and should be in a massive funk with something like 11 losses over their past 13 games. The last time the Jays were on the road, they were outscored 22-5 in a three-game series. The White Sox are no better but they’re a team that is loaded with youthful enthusiasm that is playing with nothing to lose and no pressure. The Jays are playing with nothing but pressure. The South Side’s young roster is having fun while Toronto’s lineup is pressing big time.

Then of course, there’s Marco Estrada, who limited the A’s to two runs in his last start but it was all luck. Estrada walked four and struck out four in that start. He has now walked 22 batters over his past 20 innings. His xERA in his start against Oakland was 6.34. Serious control issues in June and July have led to seven disaster results in his last 10 games started. Estrada has a 7.93 xERA and 1.93 WHIP over his last 10 starts and now he’s priced like he’s Dallas Kuechel? Marco Estrada and the Jays may win and if they do, so be it. However, the Jays aren’t winning games lately, they’re pulling rabbits out of their hat and Marco Estrada has been MLB’s worst pitcher for months. We must play the value here.  

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks