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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

12:35 PM EST. Mike Foltynewicz opened a lot of eyes with the skills growth he displayed in the second half of 2016, which signaled an impending breakout. His 3.82 ERA through 111 innings is an improvement over his 2016 ERA (4.31), but are things truly heading in the right direction? Things aren’t quite as rosy as they seem. Foltynewicz has given back a portion of the 2016 control gains, as he hasn’t been able to pound the strike zone as effectively as he did in 2016 (Ball%). His best swing-and-miss offering hasn’t been as potent (change-up swing and miss rate 2016/2017: 22%/17%), but he continues to miss a fair amount of bats. Home runs have once again been an issue with 17 leaving the yard already. He allowed 18 jacks all of last year. Foltynewicz has shown flashes of his vast potential but he has been plagued by inconsistency and struggles against left-handed batters. He has also reportedly been working to better keep his emotions in check when on the mound, as that has been a problem for him at times—whether it’s frustration with outcomes or with ball/strike calls. Don’t get us wrong, as Foltynewicz has great upside. However, his stock is a bit too high right now and therefore the value in him has passed. That value now shifts to Nick Pivetta.

Nick Pivetta’s fortunes changed as soon as he started throwing more strikes. After a 52% first-pitch strike rate that led to too many walks and constantly falling behind in the count, Pivetta was sent back down to the minors. Apparently, dude didn’t like riding buses. Since returning, he’s been pounding the strike zone. Pivetta’s first-pitch strike rate since returning is an elite 72%. Over his last 30 frames covering five starts, Pivetta has struck out 29 batters with an extremely low 10% line-drive rate. Pay no attention to Pivetta’s hugely misleading 6.23 ERA over his last five starts. His xERA over that stretch is 3.52 but an exceptionally low and unlucky strand rate of 48% has wreaked havoc on his actual ERA. Nick Pivetta is displaying very good skills lately and thus, a correction to the good in his ERA is forthcoming.

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