Cincinnati @ MIAMI
Cincinnati -101 over MIAMI

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -101 Bet365 -105 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES +100

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. 

1:10 PM EST. Dan Straily is 7-6 with a 3.84 ERA after 21 starts this season. Dan Straily is also one of the luckiest pitchers in the game so this now becomes a case of selling his skills and not his results. Straily’s xERA is 5.61. His misleading 3.84 actual ERA is a direct result of a high 77.3% strand rate. All of Straily’s skills are trending wrong too. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts, covering 28 innings, is down from 11% to 9%. Over those 28 frames, Straily has 17 K’s. His groundball/fly-ball ratio of 24% grounders and 53% fly-balls over that same stretch is horrific. His average velocity over his last five starts is also down a full tick from 90 MPH to 89 MPH. There is nothing positive going on here in Straily’s profile. After throwing 191 innings last year and now 117 this year, we’re seeing strong signs of fatigue. He’s the second best starter in this matchup and it’s not close.

For all you fantasy players out there, Luis Castillo is the bargain of the day. For all you bettors out there, Luis Castillo is the bargain of the day. Before we continue, we’ll just remind you that Castillo pitches half his games in the smallest ballpark in MLB. Outside of Coors, players call it the best hitting park in the majors while Dan Straily pitchers at one of, if not the best pitcher’s park in MLB. Castillo comes in with a 1-4 record after seven starts to go along with his 4.05 ERA. However, his xERA is 3.28 and xERA does not take park factors into consideration. If he pitched half his games at Marlins Park, his xERA might be 2.28 or thereabouts. Luis Castillo has 45 K’s in 40 innings. His swing and miss rate is 12% and rising. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is elite at 58%/9%/32%. His 9% line-drive rate would be tops in the league if he qualified but with just 40 innings pitched, he does not qualify. Castillo averages 96 MPH on the gun too.

We understand that the Reds are the coldest team in baseball but that is why Cinci is the underdog here. If they were the hottest team or even playing around .500 over their past 20 games or so, this game would be priced much differently. We now get the superior pitcher and one with filthy stuff at a price that’s worth backing. The Marlins have the Nationals in town beginning tomorrow for a three-game set and could absolutely be prepping for that series. It would not surprise us to see a regular or two from the Fish get a day off but regardless, we’re getting great value here on Castillo. The Reds are not this bad and Dan Straily is very beatable.1:10 PM EST. Dan Straily is 7-6 with a 3.84 ERA after 21 starts this season. Dan Straily is also one of the luckiest pitchers in the game so this now becomes a case of selling his skills and not his results. Straily’s xERA is 5.61. His misleading 3.84 actual ERA is a direct result of a high 77.3% strand rate. All of Straily’s skills are trending wrong too. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts, covering 28 innings, is down from 11% to 9%. Over those 28 frames, Straily has 17 K’s. His groundball/fly-ball ratio of 24% grounders and 53% fly-balls over that same stretch is horrific. His average velocity over his last five starts is also down a full tick from 90 MPH to 89 MPH. There is nothing positive going on here in Straily’s profile. After throwing 191 innings last year and now 117 this year, we’re seeing strong signs of fatigue. He’s the second best starter in this matchup and it’s not close.

For all you fantasy players out there, Luis Castillo is the bargain of the day. For all you bettors out there, Luis Castillo is the bargain of the day. Before we continue, we’ll just remind you that Castillo pitches half his games in the smallest ballpark in MLB. Outside of Coors, players call it the best hitting park in the majors while Dan Straily pitchers at one of, if not the best pitcher’s park in MLB. Castillo comes in with a 1-4 record after seven starts to go along with his 4.05 ERA. However, his xERA is 3.28 and xERA does not take park factors into consideration. If he pitched half his games at Marlins Park, his xERA might be 2.28 or thereabouts. Luis Castillo has 45 K’s in 40 innings. His swing and miss rate is 12% and rising. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is elite at 58%/9%/32%. His 9% line-drive rate would be tops in the league if he qualified but with just 40 innings pitched, he does not qualify. Castillo averages 96 MPH on the gun too.

We understand that the Reds are the coldest team in baseball but that is why Cinci is the underdog here. If they were the hottest team or even playing around .500 over their past 20 games or so, this game would be priced much differently. We now get the superior pitcher and one with filthy stuff at a price that’s worth backing. The Marlins have the Nationals in town beginning tomorrow for a three-game set and could absolutely be prepping for that series. It would not surprise us to see a regular or two from the Fish get a day off but regardless, we’re getting great value here on Castillo. The Reds are not this bad and Dan Straily is very beatable.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks



Our Pick

Cincinnati -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110