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Posted at 11:20 AM EST. 

8:40 PM EST. Ivan Nova has made tangible improvements in his time with Pittsburgh. His curveball command has improved thanks to a more consistent (and lower) release point and he's attacking the zone more often early in the count. Both changes give legs to Nova's surface gains, as he won't be prone to the wild ERA swings we saw earlier in his career with the Yankees. That said, it’s hard to see further growth from here. Nova's historically-low control has nowhere to go but up. His plus groundball % should soften the fall but unless Nova opts to use more secondary offerings—which isn't a priority given his strike-heavy, fastball approach—we’re not likely to see much improvement in his subpar strikeout rate (78 K’s in 132 frames). So, while things are clicking for the new-look Ivan Nova, bettors riding his good year would be wise to ease up because this ace-level wave has probably hit its crest.

Dinelson Lamet owns a 4.30 ERA and 50/0% dominant start/disaster start split over four games started at home thus far, and presents a massive amount of upside for this start based on his 15% swing and miss rate and 11.8 K’s/9. The Pirates offense ranks 24th in OBA (On Base Average) against RHP for the season with a .309 mark and what we have here is a false favorite based on market recognition and perception. The Padres have been so live at home all season long, they took the opener last night and can surely keep it going here.

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