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Posted at 1:00 PM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. The Blue Jays have won four straight for the first time since May but pretty it was not. In fact, Toronto didn’t win because they were good, they won because the A’s were so bad, not to mention that Oakland blew two ninth inning leads in the four game set. Now, J.A. Happ and the Jays are overpriced.

Parker Bridwell has improved (3.93 xERA) in July with more swinging strikes (12%) and more first-pitch strikes (66% FpK). Toronto can have trouble (.719 OPS-25th) vs. RHP, and the Blue Jays have struggled (.685 OPS-25th) since the All-Star break. He has allowed four earned runs in 17.2 away innings with a 2.04 ERA. Overall, some good fortune (86% strand rate) has kept his 3.09 ERA below his 4.22 xERA but even with some regression, Bridwell has been good enough to get behind.

J.A. Happ receives an underwater rating with three-consecutive disasters, weaker skills in July, and a 5.88 xERA for the month. A matchup against the Angels' bottom-five offense vs. LHP could help his cause, but he gives up a number of hard hit balls (39%) in his home (4.20 ERA) starts and that’s an alarming number. While Happ has posted decent skills on the year, he’s not in form now and it’s not the first time he’s fallen off a cliff. Giving up a number of home runs (2.1 HR/9) at Rogers Centre adds even more risk. We’re simply playing the value here off of Toronto’s four lousy wins in a row.

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